An Investigation of the Risks Faced Example for Free

Banks are type of Financial Institutions that facilitate the flow of funds and are the back bone of the economy. So banks act as financial intermediaries to interact the deficient units with surplus units and in this the banks bear certain risks. One of the risks is the credit risk or default risk. A bank is exposed to this risk when it lends money from the money of the depositors and the borrower is unable to repay the debt. This risk is one of the major risks faced by banks and it has increased significantly over the years due to the global financial crisis of 2007. The financial crisis has exposed banks to huge amount to risks leading the banks to become bankrupt and insolvent. Banks have tried to reduce the impact by concentrating in particular sectors that is lending to a few sector mostly. In Pakistan, initially banks concentrated in agriculture sector and later they have shifted their focus to the manufacturing sector due to massive industrialization and potential in the sector. So now banks are lending around 30% of the total advances to the textile sector which is one of the largest components of the manufacturing sector. Though, this lending to a particular sector hasn't borne the fruit for commercial banks. One of the major reasons is that the textile sector is facing awful times in the form of decline in exports in the US market as well as the European market. Now these markets are dominated by China. Pakistan currently faces an on going problem of energy shortage which has forced the textile sector to resort to other ways of meeting the energy gap. These alternative ways are costly and have thus led to expensive exports which are no longer lucrative in the international market. Hence, textile sector is unable to repay their debts and the banks bear the cost in the form of increased non performing loans.

1.2: Relevance of the topic and research title

Pakistan's Banking sector is one of the sound sectors which comprises of major players in the financial market. These players are Financial Institutions particularly Banks like Muslim Commercial Bank, Habib Bank and Bank Alfalah and some foreign banks like Barclays and Citi Bank. As more and more products are being introduced by the banks, in an attempt to diversify, more choices are available to the consumer to invest his money hence banks are now shifting their focus from traditional or conventional modes of banking into modern and sophisticated modes. Now with the changes in the banks portfolio, banks are extending more credit and investing more. In this era of change, banks with their lucrative offers and products are paving an entirely new path for various modes of investment. These new ways are getting customers to invest and borrow more which has resulted in a higher default thus making banks more vulnerable. In order to mitigate the impact of this default rate surge banks are concentrating there loan portfolio in credit worthy sectors but this risk management practice has failed the banks because there has been massive defaults in the sector they concentrated in which was textile sector. Hence, as the title of the research topic is "Analysis of Credit Risk in the Textile Sector" probes into the causes and determinants of this higher default rate or surge in non performing loans due to the textile sector. The subsequent research will outline the impact of various Bank specific, institutional and macroeconomic factors in assessing credit risk of various banks. It will investigate the impact that one sector can have on the overall banks' credit risk and the extent of that risk.

1.3: Background Information and Evolution

Pakistan is one of those countries where there has been rapid growth over the years especially in the field of Banking. Banking is one of the most responsive businesses all over the world. Banks play very significant function in the economy of a country and Pakistan is no exception. Banks are guardian to the assets of the general masses.

1.3.1: Pakistan's Banking Industry

The Pakistan's Banking Sector has experienced massive growth in terms of size and scale of business. The Banking sector, which was entirely dominated by Nationalized Commercial Banks (NCBs) until a few years ago, has been opened up to the private sector. The sector has witnessed an exceptional development in 2005-09. There are 45 scheduled banks [1] (including 7 foreign banks) operating in Pakistan which has increased the competition, particularly after the testing capital adequacy benchmarks set by the State Bank of Pakistan to nurture a steady banking system. Draw foreign ventures and captivating lucrative clients are the only alternative left to banks for sustained continuation. Furthermore, banks are inclined to build their organizations to give the impression of being unique from their market competitors by pursuing divergent and distinctive strategies and by introducing products and services through product differentiation. This is leading to massive competition which is touching new altitudes in the banking business and it will obtain more vigor. A number of aspects are escalating the frontiers of competition in both funding and asset use. Moreover, chances for foreign banks, particularly in consumer and retail banking, are superior than ever before and there is noteworthy transfer of spotlight from industrial lending to consumer products which has facilitated the banks to get advantage from massive spreads. Though, the manufacturing sector is still enjoying the highest share in credit facilities extended by the banking industry. Hence due to these new opportunities, the banking industry's assets have also increased over the years. Advances have increased by around 15% [2] from 2001-2009. That's means there has been a decade wide growth of 15% in the advances extended by the banking sector. Whereas, deposits have also experienced a considerable growth of around 14% which signifies the fact that the banks are actively accepting deposits and lending out in accordance the amount generated by deposits and hence earning a profit. Profits have increased till 2005 and peaked in 2006 but in 2007 due to the global financial crisis have experienced a downfall and the trickle down effects of this recession are being faced by the banking sector currently as well. On the other hand, market pressures compels the banks to make loans in unknown areas loosening the rope of risk management but the current key ratios point towards an outstanding uphill trend in the banking industry with gigantic banking spreads, particularly during the last half decade. Provision for loan losses is ascending over the years. Troubled loans or non performing advances are regarded as a cancer for banking industry. It can be said that quality loans is the ultimate objective for bankers today. Moving on, The Merger game is taking the front seat in the world. A craze for giant banks is developing to benefit effectively from the future market openings and to tame ever increasing competition. But there are inherent constraints in this mania. The economies of scale vanish automatically after a certain level of expansion in the banking industry. [3]

1.3.2: Credit Risk faced by Banking Sector

While the possession and administration of the banks by private sector is one pillar of the reforms, the other pillar is well-built regulatory environment. Private Commercial Banks are prone to taking unnecessary risks in their lending as their own capital is much lesser in relation to the depositors' money. They can realize the huge upside potential from high-risk assets while the defaults and damages in event of downside scenario are borne disproportionately by the depositors. The banking sector has now diversified its product base and carried out a lot of innovation. They have expanded their out reach to agriculture, SMEs, mortgage financing and consumer financing. Not only that this diversified lending portfolio mitigates risks but it also raises the purchasing power of a large segment of population that was completely shut out from credit markets. Pakistan's auto industry has expanded its car production by a multiple of five times in the last four years as auto financing enabled a vast number of middle class income earners to purchase the cars on monthly installments. The affordability of these new products by the middle class became possible as the prudent fiscal and monetary policies pursued by the Government left a lot of liquidity in the banking system. The Government, by reducing its fiscal deficit and public sector enterprises by making cash profits, freed up loan-able funds for the use of the private sector. The Central Bank by pursuing an accommodating monetary policy did not mop up excess liquidity and helped the businesses and consumers to access funds at historically record low levels. Due to these new products and the provision of credit facilities to middle class has led to an increase in the non performing loans. This is so because consumers with lower credit worthiness tend to default more that's why the banking industry has faced an overall surge in the defaults. To make matters worse the natural disasters (floods and earthquakes) have exposed the banking industry to a higher default rates. This can be shown by a surge in the non performing loans of the banking sector. The ratio of NPL/Advances net has increased from 1.6 in 2006 to 3.8 in 2010. [4] Which shows that despite facilitating the credit to organizations and consumers, there has also been an increase in the non performing loans? The rising quantum of NPLs is not a high-quality indication for the general financial steadiness, creditability and prosperity of the banking structure. The mounting ratio of NPLs deficiently influences the lending rate. It is also one of the most important reasons for the sluggish revitalization of ill units in the country. It is eventually causing slow down in industrial productivity and economic activity. This circumstances forces the managers of the banking industry to give minimal return to the depositors and charge high mark-up on loans. Low return on deposits dampens savings, which are already very little. [5] So, it is the duty of the central bank as a regulator to be exceptionally vigilant and take timely action to thwart the bank managers and owners from assuming excessive risks. The Central Bank in Pakistan has strengthened its capacity by acquiring new skills, upgrading the quality of the on hand human resources base, adopting technology and re-engineering business practices. The banking regulation and supervision are risk-based and are fully compliant with the international standards and codes prescribed by Basel Committee. The risk management practices are being customized to conform to Basel II rules. The financial soundness indicators show a healthy and sound banking system with high level of financial consistency.

1.3.3: Textile Sector and Credit Risk

A The portion of textile exports in entire exports of the country contracted to 55 percent in the current financial year as compared to 60 percent in the past years. As the total export quantity lingered to be stagnant in the first seven months of the current financial year, the shrinking share of textile goods in exports has been unfavorably affecting the export sector. During July-January 2009-10, total exports came to $10.870 billion. In the months under review, textile export proceeds totaled to $5.981 billion. Pakistan's share of the US textile market is dropping. China tops the US market with a share of 36 per cent followed by Bangladesh 21 per cent, India 18 per cent, Morocco 19 per cent and Pakistan 13 per cent. South Korea has lost 20 per cent of the US market. In the European market, China tops again with a share of 29 per cent, Vietnam 28 per cent, India 19 per cent and Pakistan only 1.5 per cent while the Philippines had lost 11 per cent of the market. [6] A Most importantly for firms and manufacturing sector the reason for this surge in non performing loans has been due to the decline in exports augmented with energy shortfall the country currently faces. Massive shortfall of electricity and gas has rendered major organizations and businesses to reside with expensive ways of production which has increased their costs tremendously. Hence, the gigantic cost borne by the manufacturers has hampered the repayment capability of the firms. Naturally this situation has raised the infected debts with the banks. The textile sector has a substantial contribution in the deterioration of banks' overall loan portfolio. In July-March 2009, the infection ratio of the textile sector loans increased to 17.9 per cent from 14.6 per cent in the same period of last year, while the share of textile in total loans to private sector was 19.3 per cent, but it constituted about one-third or 30 per cent of the total non-performing loans (NPLs) of the private sector. [7]

1.4: Managerial and Academic Concerns

Banks main concern is to earn a decent spread or profits. This profitability of the banks is heavily dependent on the degree of concentration in their loan portfolio that is to which sectors they lent heavily and to which they extend few loans. Concentration of loan portfolio is basically a risk management strategy which enables banks' to earn a modest return and minimizes the chance of default. For banks' it is very important, when talking about the Credit risk, because default risks is the biggest risk the financial institution is exposed to. Hence for a bank it is of extreme importance to be aware of the sectors which are credit worthy and the probability of repayment is high in which sectors, so that they can manage their loan portfolio accordingly and lend to sectors which are not or less prone to default. Furthermore, this study can be carried forward to analyze the differences between with and without diversification done by banks on their credit risk or non performing loans to be specific. In addition, this study will be useful in investigating the most likely factors which lead to an increase in the default risk of banks. One of the major academic concerns is that the panel cross sectional analysis will act as aid in providing deep insight on banking practices to people inside the banks as well as outside.

1.5: Problem Discussion

Credit risk management is one of the most important issues in banking due to the weight it carries in assuring banks' survival. Credit risk arises from the potential that an obligor is either unwilling to perform on an obligation or its ability to perform such obligation is impaired resulting in economic loss to the bank [8] . In other words, it is the risk that customers will default on their debt obligations and the probability that the credit worthiness of the borrower will decline, which means that the chances of default increases. So, it is very important for banks to monitor the credit risk the portfolio is exposed to since a large default can lead to banks' insolvency. To avoid this insolvency banks have to monitor their positions and make sure that the amount lent to anyone customer and/or customers within a single industry and/or a give country is limited. It is generally acknowledged that the amount or percentage of non-performing loans (NPLs) is usually linked with bank failures and financial disasters in both developing and developed countries. In reality, there is plentiful substantiation that the financial/banking crises in East Asia and Sub-Saharan African countries were preceded by high non-performing loans. The present worldwide financial crisis, which instigated in the US, was also credited to the speedy non-payment of sub-prime loans/mortgages. In examination of this truth it is for that reason comprehensible why a large amount of stress is placed on non-performing loans when investigating financial vulnerabilities. [9] So to minimize risk banks either monitor their portfolios or diversify. Banks wish to diversify because the cost of monitoring is greater than the benefit so banks diversify across economic sectors or geographic regions. Diversification increases the average return of the bank, which generally reduces the bank's chance of failure. Nevertheless, if banks' loans have sufficiently low exposure to sector downturns, a specialized bank has a low probability of failure, so the benefit of diversification is slight. If banks' loans have sufficiently high exposure to sector downturns, diversification can actually increase the bank's chance of failure: a downturn in one sector is enough to make a diversified bank fail, and a diversified bank is exposed to more sectors than a specialized one. Thus, all else equal, diversification's benefits are greatest when the bank's loans have moderate levels of credit risk [10] Hence, the financial soundness of the Pakistani banks depends upon the sectors performance to which they concentrated in. In this case the textile sector of Pakistan's economy is facing a downturn due to reduced demand for textile in the foreign market, that's why the sector is unable to pay back its debt and shifts the burden of risk on the banks. If the banks are financial sound they will absorb such shocks otherwise they will face insolvency.

1.6: Keywords and Definitions

The credit policy: To maximize the short run benefits, managers seek to rapidly expand credit activities and may hence take inadequate credit exposures. Particularly, during periods of economic growth, the financial institutions engage in market share conquest campaigns discarding the necessary assessment of credit quality of borrowers. This will lead, through adverse selection reasoning, to an increase of problem loans. As loans growth rate exceeds a certain point, further loans growth adds increase bad loans. Capital adequacy ratio: a tool to control excessive risk taking by banks and to prevent them from being insolvent through recapitalization (Basel accord). Banks with level of capital adequacy ratio (CAR) less than the regulatory minimum are forced to adjust their balance sheet to comply with the regulatory requirement either by raising more capital (holding assets constant) or reducing risk weighted assets (holding capital constant) banks with high levels of CAR might be encouraged to embark in riskier activities leading to riskier credit portfolios Banks' Performance: Banks with high profitability are less pressured to revenue creation and thus less constrained to engage in risky credit offerings. Diversification: reduces risk taking as it makes possible the compensation for losses in some product by gains in others. For well diversified banks, where non-interest revenues are important, NPLs should be lower than for less (poorly) diversified financial institutions Size: larger banks have more resources, and are more experimented to better deal with bad borrowers Foreign ownership: a negative effect of foreign ownership on nonperforming loans leading to improve domestic banks credit quality. State Ownership: state-owned banks have more incentives to fund riskier projects and to allocate more favorable credits to small and medium firms. NPLs tend to be higher for banks with state ownership than for other groups Bank-level efficiency: ratio of operating expenses to total assets Bank leverage: (measured by debt to equity ratio)

1.7: Study Objectives

The goal of this paper is to examine the sensitivity of non-performing loans to macroeconomic and bank specific factors in Pakistan. In particular, it utilizes regression analysis covering 10 years (2001 to 2009) to scrutinize the association involving non-performing loans and numerous key macroeconomic and bank specific variables. The aim of this research is twofold. First, it seeks to explain differences in NPL levels amongst different commercial banks. Second, it addresses the possible impact of business and institutional environment on the rate of NPL at the bank level. Based on existing literature, we model nonperforming loans disparity between banks as a function of both bank specific and environmental factors. The former serves to capture differences between banks in terms of ownership structure, credit and provisions policies and level of regulatory capital. The latter category allows us to control differences in business and institutional environment between banks to assess the link between their effectiveness and a well-functioning financial system. This research paper includes a literature view supporting the theoretical framework. Then a proper planned methodology is presented to test empirical evidences and lastly findings are reported and analyses of the findings are done along with the conclusion.

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