Guidelines for a Beginner to Investing Finance Essay

Here are some guidelines for that beginner who interest to invest in gold. Gold is hot topic for investment recently. Gold is stated as safer for investment.

The gold possess some rare features which are gold could as a medium of exchange, as a store of wealth to increase and store of its power. Normally, people will use the gold to store of wealth because the value of gold is always maintained stable. It also could against any change of depreciation of paper money.

According the history of gold, gold is very stable asset even there is any others assets could replace of it. The attractiveness of gold is related in several aspects such as macroeconomic, geopolitical, monetary and systemic risk that cause the global financial system and economy. Gold is a successful and profitability investment due to its diversification and management of risk.

The pyramid I below has shown the level of risk investment where the pyramid II has shown the instrument used to invest. [1] Based on the pyramid I, the level risk of investment start from the bottom which is Foundation to the top which is Speculation. Thus, a healthy portfolio consist a wide range of assets including a series of equities with appeal to variety market, different countries, different view of risk conscious is important to be considered. In these uncertain times, caution and risk consciousness is crucially important and counterparty and systemic risk should be considered.

The more important thing is to determine what amount of each asset class to have and to own assets that will whether the onslaught of inflation, deflation, stagflation and even hyperinflation. Some exposure to gold should be included in all diversified portfolios. A good rule of thumb would be minimum allocation relevant to the gold investment. Once there is a motive to push you to buy any investment like gold, and you have decided which form you are going to buy, there are several roles that your wish to portray. Are you a speculator, investor or saver? Do you wish to take a short term speculative position in gold? Are you investing for the short, medium or long term? Or are you diversifying, saving or using as a form of financial insurance?

Gold Investment Pyramid

The ascending order of the gold risk is insurance, investment/ saving, investment and speculation.

If there any investors are seeking for the portfolio investment project, they could consider invest in gold. It is undeniable that gold has a long-term store of value, is an asset of last resort, is a highly liquid and is a good way to diversify your assets. One of the functions of gold could be stated as store of value because it fulfills all of the function of money. As we all know, there are four functions of money which are medium of exchange, standard of value, store of value, and source of liquidity. Money is portable, divisible, and indestructible, easily recognizes and always accepted a s form of payment. While any fluctuation of currency, gold withstand inflation and market fluctuation. It is a secure aspect of any investment portfolio.

In addition, the price of gold is not affected by the company's profit unlike stocks and bonds. However, it is rely on the supply and demand, the rate of US dollar, inflation and interest rates. There is negative relationship between the price of gold and the price of stocks and bonds. When the market bottom out, gold generally increase in value, thereby stabilizing the investment portfolio. Normally, government or banks will hold physical gold to limit their losses in paper asset. In addition, household investors should also consider using a same successful hedge tactic to protect their own portfolios.

Risk of gold

There is no possible of any investment does not contain any risk. Basically, the point of views of investors is the concept of high risk high return. Risk averse of an investor will take low risk and low return investment, while the risk taker of investor will take high risk high return investment. Different investor has different degree of acceptance of the risk.

There is no doubt that the financial instruments have 3 main types of risk which are credit risk, liquidity risk and market risk. [2] Each of risk will affect the return of the investment. Credit risk is the risk that the possibility of debtor unable to cover required financial obligation. Next, the liquidity risk is the risk that the cash needed in shock and wish to sell the asset as soon as possible to convert the cash, but the buyer cannot be found. Last but not least is the market risk is the risk that the change of prices as a result from the uncertain situation or fluctuation of the economic environment. Risk is unpredictable in sometime. Investors may unable to predict what kind of the risk will meet due to the uncertain environment. For any investors who are interested in the investment in gold, there is a risk consideration that investors should understand. According to the guideline from Public bank, the returns on the GIA are subject to movements of international gold price and US dollar foreign exchange. Capital loss may incur as a result of untimely disposal of gold holdings under a depressed gold price. Apart from that, there is a warning from Public bank which is the return of gold investment account are subject to the gold price fluctuation and US dollar foreign exchange. The customer is remained that this product is not insured by Perbadanan Insurance deposit Malaysia.

Gold does not have any credit risk because it is unique. Nobody will carry gold as a liability. It is because coupon and redemption payment will not be made, so it is no risk for gold. However, the bond, or the firm will go out of business, as for equity. In addition, effect of economic policies of the issuing country or undermined by inflation in the country will not bring any harmful or influence toward the value of gold. Apart from that, liquidity risk of gold is quite low as a result from 24 hours trading business hour. The transaction of gold among the world is conducted by 24 hours basis. It is because certain country may close the transaction while others country just only start the business transaction. The buyer of gold are comes from anywhere. For instance, jewellery field contains a lot of buyer to financial institutions, plenty of investment ways cater to the buyer like coins and bars, jewellery, future and options, exchange-traded funds, certificated and structured product. In the fact, the transaction of the gold is dealing at not such big area to spreads and more rapidly than many competing diversifiers or even mainstream investment.

Thus the gold market is deep and liquid. According to experience of the 1990s, it shows the gold price declined sharply. It is clearly represent that the gold is subject to market risk from the experience 1990s. The risk related to the gold price is totally different with other risk of asset. The reason of the gold's attractiveness is portfolio diversifier. Investors no doubt wish to maximize the return and minimize the risk. In order to minimize the risk, many investors are seeking to receive more effective diversification in their portfolios by choosing the best alternative investment. Gold has strong return because it is not associated with other assets. The data below had shown the 5 year correlation of weekly returns on key assets classes and golf (USD), to June 2009.

Source : Bloomberg, World Gold Council

Since the gold attractiveness which is portfolio diversified, there is more and more banks agreement on gold. For instances, European central banks renew CBGA and stated that "gold remains an important element of global monetary reserves". Except gold, other bonds or securities will be influenced by the pressure on the health government and corporate sector during the economic recession. Measurement for market risk is volatility. Volatility does not measure the direction of prices changes, merely their dispersion. The more volatile an asset lead to the riskier of the asset. However, the gold price is normally less volatile because of the depth and liquidity of the gold market which are supported by the availability of large above-ground stocks of gold.

According to Money week magazine research, each type of gold has different risk consideration, cost, delivery and so forth. Now, let us take a look for each type gold's risk, consideration, cost, delivery and so forth.

Source : Money week- UK's Best selling Financial Magazine

Gold investment advice

Before going to make any investment, investors should do some research pertaining to what kind of investment the investors are going to invest, when is the right for investors to put the money in, How much investment amount should put in, and so forth. Investors should seek every aspect pertaining to the investment that investors want to invest. Thus, investors have an opportunity to look overall situation at different investment opportunities that are being suitable for investor.

Confidence in traditional investment vehicles such pensions and equities as seen better days and many investors are still licking their wounds after the dotcom crash that has overshadowed investment markets since beginning of the decade( UK investment advice). [3] However, over-confidence by the investors will lead to investment failure. It is because some investors may over-confidence in certain investment especially the investment consists low risk, then the investment will show hand and put all the asset of themselves into a basket of investment. Actually, this kind of behavior is wrong and make harmful for the investors. Normally, the investment adviser will advise the investor cannot to do it so, but the intense of the investors insist to do. Consequently, the investors may loss everything. So, investors nowadays ought to learn from this lesson. However, nowadays investors are far conscious of the need for low risk investments that bring solid growth in the long term compare to the higher risk assets. [4] According to the World Gold Council, the gold investment demand predicted to increase. The gold investment demand was higher than that for gold jewellery until the later 1960s and predicted an uptick in both in 2010 as investors flock to precious metal as a safe haven vehicle and the jewellery sector recovers (Globe and Mail, Martin Murenbeeled, chief economist). Therefore, it could possible attract many investors to invest or hold or buy the gold.

5There are some tips and advice for the investors as a guideline before they are going to invest in certain investment. First, the investors have to take a look from the reputable publication such as Business Week or Fortune. In practice, these kinds of publications provide point of view by certain famous economist or news of the gold investment market regularly. No doubt, these kind of publication possess a good name in several aspect of fields.

6Next, investors could look for some information from the journalists that work under the reputable publications. In addition, these publications will set up a Q&A site for people to ask the question. So the investors could post their queries on there about the gold investment. However, if the investors feel unsure or unsecure about the information that has been provided, investors could directly make call to them for getting further detail about the gold investment. Not only is the journalist from the pubilication, there also some journalists from the professional financial. In this kind of journalists, they will always update the information about market as it stands, and give accurate information on which best alternative chance for investor to make the investment. Advice for the investors is tried to look for the high quality newspaper or journalist in order to obtain more accurate information.

It is no doubt that investors could find the clues or hints or tips from the international markets. The international markets will exhibits the news pertain the currently situation to the general field of gold trading. However, investor could not rely on the domestic market since it is affected by the localized issue. As we mentioned, the value of gold will not affected the issue of the political and economic downturn. No matter how fluctuation about the political event, the value of gold does share with it. Therefore, investors have to see through overall sectors that might cater any information for decision making. Moreover, overall prices of gold investment could be determined by the general economic situation in investor's country. Investors should always get ready when there is any economic turn bad. It is because it might impact on the reaction of the gold market. Thus, investors ought to get ready against any change in investment and preparation of ways in order to minimize the loss. This preparation could be stated as "Prevention is better than cure".

In addition, some investors may get the gold market information from the media. Obviously, the report from media will more abstract sometime. Investors might misunderstand the information from the media. Apart from that, sometime the media disclose the information of gold with too optimistic or too pessimistic. Thus, the investors should not totally trust the information from the media. Investors should have the ability to analyze the every information that the investors obtain. Investors should more understand the every concept that might trigger any changes to the market before the investors entirely depend on the information from media for decision making. Therefore, it could reduce the possibility failure of the gold investment.

There are some avoided actions that investors should take note. Investors do not listen to the myths that what it had figure out pertain to the investment. Investors must have the ability to distinguish the wrong or right information. Investors could not entirely rely on the belief of society. It might influence the decision making of the investors. Anyone could own the gold investment as the asset as long as they have the inclinations and drive to participate in the market. Normally, gold is split into smaller and traded at lower prices which that the investor could expect out if they compliance the mythical claims. Once the investors decide to hold the gold investment, there is no reason for the investors not join in the market.

Besides that, investors do not make up the facts as they have gone through. Investors should make the gold investment follow the sound factual information. This can be very costly investment and therefore the investors have to ensure that they are ready to against the truth from the unexpected happening rather than speculation like gambling. It is better to get sound gold investment advice before proceed any further.

Investors could get the information from the individual trader. Individual trader may provide some useful information because their job always related to the gold investment. Individual trader basically provides the information pertain to the investment of gold that may trigger any change on the market. Indeed, investors should not entirely trust on their information because individual trader might be working with the self-interest that is not immediately obvious.

Some investors will invest in gold investment because of their family. They hear from their family member talks about how good of a certain investment. Actually, investors should not listen up the prediction of the family because they are not professional about the investment. Even their prediction or information might be wrong. So reliability the information from the family is low. However, if they are speaking from the experience then investors might listen it and seek for evidence whether the information from their experience is right or wrong. It is no doubt that it might be the individual tips or clues from them. So investors could make it as a reference, but not totally rely on.

Some investors might use the fund from the pension to do the investment. Pension fund will you some advice. Pension fund manager might advice you to invest in gold in order to expand the potential of your portfolio. They are possible receive the bad risk when they take part in the process and disagree the decision had been made. You should keep contact with the pension fund manger if you are really interest invest in gold investment.

7Those investors who really interest invest in gold investment; they could seek help from the banks. Banks could always give the actual information and advice for the investors in anytime. Even banks will set out a special site for any investors need the consultation on the investment. Thus, bank will provide recommendation which gold product should investment. Investors need to be forefront of such efforts if investors are given the right to seek for any golden chance in variety aspect of investment. In fact investors are possible to have higher standards from the bank advisers.

If anyone of the investor is consolidated with others, they could give the advisable to each other this is showing the mercy to the partner. Any objection from the majority rule, then the suggestion should be amended or delay it to operate. If lucky, the decision of any investment will be proved and follow what propose have been made.

The internet is a rich source in gold investment opportunities for sure. Investor could find our as many as possible they want. No doubt, some of the information could be made by some fake investment advice. Even, not all the information provided in the internet are totally right. However, investor still be advised to seek the information as much as possible in order to fulfill the need before making decision.

Determinants of Gold price

What are the factors cause the price of gold to change? [8] Based on the research from the World Gold Council Document, it exhibits that the gold price is determined by two sets of the factors which are "supply" and "macro-economic factors". It is indirectly correlation between supply and price of gold. According to World Gold Council Document's economic study, the available supply of gold in the market is made up of three major "above-ground sources." First, reclaimed scrap or gold reclaimed from jewellery and other industries such as electronic and dentistry; Second, official, or central bank, sales; Third, gold loan made to the market from official gold reserves for borrowing and lending purposes. However, US dollar is also negative relationship with the price of gold in term of the macro-economic factors, when inflation and gold tend to move in tandem with each other. Indeed, higher real interest rates are generally negative factors for gold.

No one could deny that the value of the gold is very hard to determine because there is no underlying cash flow. [9] According to private investors Mr. Adam Katz, he has done studies about applying the P/E concept to Gold. He looked at the money supply to determine the future gold price. He has used the TMS model which is M1, M2, MZM, or True Money Supply to indicate the relationship between the money supply and the factors of gold price. Based on the analysis from Mr. Adam Ktaz, gold is the leading indicator for money supply; not the other way around.

In 1980's, the True Money supply grew higher the value of gold price. If the premium of gold price higher than TMS as result of the increase money supply in future. This also intervenes that increase in the money supply could arise without gold requirement increasing in value. Besides that, price of gold could be increased if the demand of gold shock increases. From the advice by Mr. Adam Ktaz, investors should find a best alternative approach to play the rising money supply. Treasuries and real estate have external risks outside of the money supply. Apart from that, Federal could reduce the excess liquidity. Therefore, gold can move significantly lower as expectations of money supply increase diminish.

Let proceed further pertaining to the relationship between gold and money supply. [10] There is evidence that the gold is an asset that has low correlation to most financial assets, both in expansionary and recessionary periods. This could be explained by the behavior of gold over the short-run or long-run. In a global context, effect of the money supply could influence on the performance of gold. For instance, there is an inversely relationship between dollar and the gold. It is shown that the gold is a better asset to invest than other assets like stocks and the bonds in times when inflation happens. Basically, the money supply is controlled and fixed by the central bank. Central bank uses the expansionary monetary policy when recessions occur. Central bank will lower the reserve ratio or lower the discount rate or increase the reserve auction in order to increase the excess reserves for the commercial banks. Thus, commercial banks will have more excess reserves make loan to the customer. In addition, this action will lead to the federal fund rate decrease. Even increase the money supply in the public, thus the interest rate fall linkage to the investment spending increase. Therefore, the aggregate demand of the country will increase. Ended up, the real GDP of the country will increase which mean that the expansionary monetary policy upward the pressure of the investment spending to improve the economic growth. Conversely, when inflation arises; Central bank would use the restrictive monetary policy to reduce the money supply in the public. Federal sells the bonds to increase the reserve ratio, increase the discount rate or decrease reserve auctions. This policy will cause the excess reserves decrease, thus commercial banks have less amount to loan out for customers. At the same time, the federal funds rate will increase linkage to the money supply falls. After that, the interest rate will raise as a result the investment spending decrease. At the end, the aggregate demand decrease and the inflation decline. In conclusion, there is a directly relationship between money supply and gold can exist in either case. How could be say that? As mentioned earlier, increase the money supply will boost the economic growth because the interest rate fall stimulate the many investors more willing to do the investment including in gold investment. Nevertheless, as excess money enters the system and the economy remains stagnant, investors will seek for the investment is less risky in order to protect their wealth such gold. According the World Gold Council's report, there is evidence that money supply growth has an impact on future gold performance.

11There is some information about the determinant of gold price given by Mr. Zoher Doctor. He is a financial Planner. According to Mr.Zoher, the total gold supply to the market in each period from extraction is directly correlation with the lagged gold price. However, there is an inversely relationship between the movement of Dollar with the price of gold. All the determinant of price of gold should be seriously consider when the investors need to do some predict in the gold price.

The table above show that determinants of price of gold. The gold of supply occupies the higher percentage influence the price of gold with 50%. The US dollar is second largest factor follow by the gold supply impact on the gold price. It is because the returns on the gold are subject to the movements of international gold price and US dollar foreign exchange.

Determinants of the price of gold in terms of the Short-run and Long-run

Here are some analysis pertaining to the price of gold in the long run period. [12] According to the Eric J.Levin and Roert E. Wright, there are three posibles results to identical the determinant of gold price in the long run. First, the relationship between price of gold and the US price level is belong to the long term status. Second, the movement of price of gold and the US price level are move together in a statistically important long run relationship. It mean that the increase of US price level with 1 percent , the price of gold will follow to increase with 1 percent. In addition, it exhibit the gold is a long-term hedge against inflation. Third, long term relationship could be triggered from a wake of a shock., there is a slow revrsion back toward it. Based on the reseach from Eric J.Levin andRoert E.Wright, the estimate of error correction term is -0.019, which implies that each month's error is about 2 per cent smaller than the previous month. In effect, in the aftermath of a shock, it typcaly takes around five year to eliminate two-thirds of the deviation from the long-term relationship between the price of gold and the US price level.

However, the price of gold and US inflation are directly correlation ship to each other in the short-run. Any movement of the price of gold will be directly affected by the any fluctuation in US inflation, US inflation volatility and credit risk. Conversely, any modify in the price of gold and the changes in the US dollar trade-weighted exchange rate and the gold lease rate are inversely relationship.

Gold would become as the inflation hedge. The reason is if the dollar deprecation will reduce the gold price to the outsider the US, which will increase their demand for gold and thus increase the dollar price of gold or if dollar depreciation will rose US inflation.

Source: World Gold Council

Prediction the price of gold 2010

13In order to estimate what is the price of gold in 2010, there are some should take into consideration such as global economic trens, the strategy used and get ready when a depreciate of dollar, and inflationary rate.

The dealing price of the gold may fluactuate above the 1000 dollars per ounce basd on the prediction in the December 2009 to 2010. Even, at the end of year, the price could boost up to the 1500 dollars per ounce. Such case may trigger double loss for the investor if they afraid it will be just for short lived. In addition, another prediction show that the price may decline to less than 800 dollar per ounce in the following year which close to end of 2010 or 2011.

Based on the resource from CNBC Stock Blog and CNBC TV interview, is it wild fold preices expected for 2010? Actully it is unable to estimate the real gold price in 2010. The reason is too much of uncertainty may happen. In any how, investor should be careful to deal with thhis investment. Some of the predition is just for information and forecast for gold price in 2010, it might not really truth actually.

What is reason to predict that the higher gold price in 2010? One of reason is the price of gold keep increase from the year 2006 to 2009 with the 400 dollar per ounce to 1,100 and above dollar. In the past, function of gold is used to against the depreciation of dollar. It is because the gold unlike currency and it would not affect by the economic situation. There are negative relationship bewteen gold and currency. Nevertheless, gold is always quoted per ounce in US dollar. Therefore, when the dollar depreciate , investor will try to look for the best althernative to grabs more value in the dollar.

Other reason is in pratice, central banks will keep gold as a the reserves. If central banks use net buying of gold as a result of the pressure upward the price goes up. Conversly, it the central bank sell, subsidy provided with the price per ounce.

Well, next factor is futures and commodities needed is keep increasing by the investors. It will trigger and raise the value of gold because of the interest rate of investment increase as well.

Interactive Gold Price Chart

Source: www.GoldAlert.com

Gold Investment News

First, [14] "Gold Stock Divergence" case highlighted a few month ago is still in place.(Brian Hunt in Steve Sjuggerud's Daily Wealth. The changes and the movement of Gold Mining stocks and the US stock Market are at the same speed. The Boad market kept declined. However, gold stock still maintained solid, keep to strength in gold itself.

Based on the performance chart provided by Steve Sjuggerud, divergence is still in place. Gold Mining Stocks(the black lne) are showing positive returns and climbing. The S&P 500 (the Blue line) is showing negative returns and falling.

Next news pertaining to the gold is The world's anti-dollar. [15] "Ready For A Dollar Collapse?" (David Bradshaw).

Can be the gold to be a currency?? As we hear before, gold is a commodity, no different with others. According to the Paul Bodsky, "gold is a currency" whose daily price is a gauge of the market's concern about the ' potential diminishment' of the purchasing power of the dollar and other paper currency. Assume what he say is right, there will no inflation or deflation occur in the economic, and cause a possible real issue for gold market.

Source from: Federal Reserve; WSJ research

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