Marketing Forecasting Techniques Essay Example Pdf

As the purpose of the company manager is to make their company more profitable and valuable so manager must take a right decision to identify, evaluate and implement as well as estimate the benefits of potential projects that meet or exceed investor expectations. It also estimates that how changes in capital structure, dividend policy and working capital policy will influence shareholder value. How ever the value creation is impossible unless company do appropriate forecasting for the future. Financial planning process is a crucial part so there are following forecasting techniques which help manager in decision making One of the most appropriate forecasting method in capital budgeting is estimating future cash flow for a project that enable cost and revenue forecasting for an organisation as well. Capital budgeting tools evaluate expected future cash flows in relation to cash put out today.

It is very important task for forecasting cast and revenue for an organisation the final result we obtain are really only as good as the accuracy of our estimate. Because cash, not income is central to all decisions of the firm. We express what every benefits we expect from a project in term of cash flows rather than income. The firm invests cash now in the hope of receiving returns in a greater amount in the future. Only cash receipts can be re invested in the firm or paid to stock holders in the form of dividends. In capital budgeting good guys may get credit, but effecting managers get cash. In setting up cash flows for analysis a computer spread sheet program is invaluable, It allow one to change assumptions and quickly produce a new cash stream.

For each investment proposal we need to provide information on expected future cash flows on and after text bases. In addition information must be provided on an incremental bases so that we analyze only the difference between the cash flow the firm with and without the project for example if a firm contemplates a new product that is likely too compete with existing product it is not appropriate to express cash flow in term of the estimated sales of the new product. We must take into account some probable cannibalization.

The sales forecasting normally starts with a review of sales during the past five to ten years. Through these past five years historic sales firm can predict its future growth. Once sales have been forecasted, company must forecast future balance sheets and income statements.

The objective of historic data is to forecast the future or pro forma financial statement. The percent of sale method assume that costs in a given year will be some specified percentage of that year's sales. Thus company begin their analysis by calculating the ratio of costs to sales for several past years.

For making any decision to invest in any project company forecasts the income statement for the coming year. Income statement forecast is needed to estimate both income and the addition to retained earnings.

The asset shown in the balance sheet must increase if sales are to increase. So on the basis of assets, sales, inventory and receivables ratio analysis company manager make decision for future projects. Financial forecasting generally starts with a forecast of the company sales in terms of both units and dollars (Ref: Eugene F. Brigham, Michael C. Ehrhardt - 2008 - Business & Economics - 1071 page, Accessed on 15th May 2010) Either the projected or pro forma, financial statement method can be used to forecast financial requirements. The financial statement method is more reliable and it's also provides ratios that can be used to evaluate alternatives business plans. A firm can determine the additional fund needed by estimating the amount of new asset necessary to support the forecasted level of sales and then subtracting from that amount the spontaneous funds that will be generated from operation. The firm can then plan how to raise the additional funds needed most efficiently. Adjustment must be made if economies of scale exist in the use of assets, if excess capacity exists or asset must be added in lumpy increments. Linear regression and excess capacity adjustment can be used to forecast asset requirements in situation where assets are not expected to grow at the same rate as sales.

Businesses, individuals and government often need to raise capital to invest in specific projects. For example, suppose Carlin power & Light (CP&L) forecasts an increase in the demand for electricity in North Carolina and the company decides to build a new power plant. Because at the moment CP&L certainly not have the 1 billion to pay for the plant, Carlin & light will have to raise this capital in the financial market. Although equity, debt and preferred stock are the major sources of funds for the company to raised a capital.

Bond is another option for the CP&L to raise a capital for the investment in new project. In financial term a bond is a debt security in which the authorized issuer owes the holders a debt and, it's depend upon the terms of the bond, some bonds obliged to pay a certain amount of interest until the time of its maturity. A bond is a kind of formal contract to payback borrowed money with interest at fixed intervals. So issuing bond can be the one of source for the company to raise capital.

Leasing as an alternative to outright purchase, minimize cash outgoing and maximize the tax advantages. The lease can include such charges as maintenance, which enables the company to know, in advance, the total costs for the year. At the end of the lease period the company can return the asset, exercise its option to buy or negotiate a new lease on new equipment. Leasing mean that company can always have the most up-to-date equipment. The company may never own the good outright. However, if it wants to keep the equipment, it must take out a new lease or buy. Alternatively organization can sell an asset to a financial institution and lease it back from them. This is termed sales and lease back. The advantage here is that the company receives an injection of cash and can spread the repayments over a number of years.

CP&L can use note payable method to raise a capital for its project. A promissory note, referred to as a note payable. Or can say commonly as just a NOTE, it is a contract where one party makes an unconditional promise in writing to pay a sum of money to the other party or can say company (payee) either at a fixed or determinable future time or on demand of the payee, under specific terms and conditionsCommon stock

Common stock is another way to raised fund in form of CP&L equity ownership. It is a type of security. In case of common stock holders of common stock are able to influence the corporation through votes on establishing corporate objectives and policy, stock splits, and electing the company's board of directors. Some holders of common stock also receive preventative rights, which enable them to keep their proportional ownership in a company. There is no fixed dividend will be paid to common stock holders and so their returns are undecided, dependent on earnings, company reinvestment, and proficiency of the market to value and sell stock.

Different Appraisal Methods for Investment

Net present value as a superior method of investment appraisal.

Net present value

NPV is a precursor of how much value an investment or project adds to the firm. With a specific project, if return value is a positive value, then project is in the status of discounted cash inflow in the time of time. But if NPV comes in a negative value, the project is in the status of discounted cash outflow of time. Some time with positive value of NPV risk could be accepted A present value is the value now invested for the cash flow it could be negative value or positive value. The value of each cash flow is needed to be adjusted for risk and the time value of money for a project. A net present value (NPV) considers all cash flows that including initial cash flows for example the cost of purchasing of an asset, whereas a present value does not. The simple present value is useful where the negative cash flow is an initial one-off, as when buying a security. A discount rate allied like this NPV = CF0 + CF1/(1+r) + CF2/(1+r)2 + CF3/(1+r)3A ... Where CF 1 is the cash flow the investor receives in the first year, CF2 the cash flow the investor receives in the second year etc. and r is the discount rate.( Ref: moneyterms.co.uk accessed on 11th May 2010) The series will typically end in a visual display unit value, which is a rough estimate of the value at that point. It is usual for this to be adequately far in the future to have only a minor effect on the NPV, so as rough estimate, usually based on a estimation ratio, that is acceptable. Periods other than a year could be used, but the discount rate needs to be adjusted. Assuming we start from an annual discount rate then to adjust to another period we would use, to get a rate i, given annual rate r, for a period x, where x is a fractionA  or a multiple of the number of years: i + 1 = (r + 1)x To use discount rates that vary over time (so r1 is the rate in the first period, r2 = rate in the second period etc.) we would have to resort to a more basic form of the calculation: NPV = CF0 + CF1/(1+r1) + CF2/((1+r1) Aƒ-(1+r2)) + CF3/((1+r1) Aƒ-(1+r2) Aƒ-(1+r3))A ... This would be tedious to calculate by hand but is fairly easy to implement in a spreadsheet

Financial ratio analysis helps an organization to evaluate their employee performance, credit policies and also over all performance and efficiency of the company. After doing ratio analysis of the company it tell us that how company is improving its performance gradually. Some of its ratios shows sudden increase in certain areas like return on capital employed which has increased in this year from 15% to 25% that shows the increase in profitability of a company. Its mean company is optimum utilising their asset to earn more profit. In other words if we looked at ratio analysis of last year and this year which indicates that over all company performed well in this year that's mean company is efficiently utilising its asset and other resources they have minimised their liabilities. But overall the result of this year is better than the previous one.

Limitations of ratios

Following are the limitations of ratio analysis. The first and important limitation of the ratio category is Accounting information that means the different accounting policies which may misrepresent inter company comparisons. And secondly, through inventive accounting some accounts of the company are adjusted therefore, ratio analysis can give false explanations to the users. The second limitation of ratio is Information problems. The limitations problem in information are there because ratios are not ultimate measures, invalid information is presented in the financial statements, historical costs is not good for decision making, and ratios give general interpretations. Third form of limitation is Comparison of performance over the time. These limitations can caused by ratio analysis because of price changes, technology changes, changes in accounting policy and impact of organization size Many ratios are calculated on the basis of the balance sheet figures of the company. These figures are as on the balance-sheet date only and may not be suggestive of the year round position. It can present current and past trends, but not future trends. Impact of inflation is not properly reflected the ratios analysis , as many figures are taken at historical for of data that is several years old. The ratios are only as good or bad as the essential information used to calculate them.

Recommendations:

In business strategy we emphasised on the role of the business environment in shaping strategic thinking and decision-making. The external environment in which a business is operating can creates a lot of opportunities which a business can exploit, as well as threats that could damage a business as well. However, to be in a position to take advantage of opportunities or react to threats, a business needs to have the right resources and capabilities in place. After analysing The Amber LIGHTS LTD financial statement we recommend that company must focus on the resource auditing to identify the resources available to a business as well as best utilisation of the resources. Some of these can be owned e.g. plant, building and machinery, retail outlets whereas other resources can be obtained through partnerships, mergers or simply supplier arrangements with other businesses. The resource auditing analysis helps to define the capabilities for AMBER LIGHTS LTD. An most important objective of a strategic auditing is to make sure that the business portfolio is strong and that business units requiring investment and management attention are highlighted. REFRENCES www.google.com (accessed on 3rd May 2010) www.investopedia.com (accessed on 9th June 2010) www.solutionmatrix.com (accessed on 12th June 2010) www.wikipedia.com (accessed on 7th June 2010) Van Horn J. (12th Edition) Financial management and policy (accessed on 1st May 2010) F.Birgham et C. Ehrhardt (10th Edition) Financial Management Theory and Practice (accessed on 5th May 2010)

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