Impact of Economic Cycles Example for Free

In the previous assignment, we have collected the information about the economic condition in Malaysia in 1997 to 2007. We also have collected related information about our respondents in evaluating the performance of the foreign exchange or money changer business. Our original plan in conducting this research has been stated in the previous assignment.

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But the plans are not fit to the situation due to the lack of time and the postponed of the interview session with our respondents. In order to explain this situation in detail we have provide the viewers of the research about the illustration of our action plan in carry out this research successfully.

Contents

Revising the Activity Plan for the Previous Activity and the Action Plan to be taken.

Below is the activity plan that we have been implemented in the previous task. The activities were planned in systematic way where the time period is equivalent with the activities. All the tasks have been done successfully. But not all of them are done in time. This is because the time is the obstacle for us to seek for more data which more accurate from the reliable sources such as the economic condition of Malaysia from the ministry. Other than that, the original plan was changed due to the postponed of the interview session in order to collect primary data regarding the money changer business and the performance of the business during the economic cycle. The previous activities in carry out the research can be viewed as follows.

1.1 The Gantt chart in Carry Out research in Assignment

Diagram 1: Gantt chart for activities in completing assignment 1

Indicator: Task 1: Brainstorming the ideas on determining suitable topic for research Task 2: Discussing appropriate methodology to be used to carry out research Task 3: Discussing on the suitable date for interview session Task 4: Discussing about the question to be asked in interview Task 5: Discuss on how to collect information regarding the topic Task 6: Decided to do all the tasks together and no one is responsible for a particular task Task 7: Finding information about exchange rate and money changer business in Kuala Lumpur Task 8: Finding information about economic cycle in Malaysia from 1997 to 2007 Task 9: Discuss about literature review and completing the assignment The Gantt chart above shows the activities or tasks that we have been carried out in this research. There are gaps between the tasks mostly in the beginning of this research. This is because we only do this research in weekdays and writing the reports in weekends. This Gantt chart is produce after we submitted the first assignment because we find difficulties in producing effective chart to explain the activities planned.

1.2 The Changes of Activities in Assignment 1

In this first week of the research, we have planned to done the interview session with the respondents in the following weeks. Task 3 indicates the plan which consists of discussing on the suitable date for interview session with the selected respondents. We have decided to conduct the interview in week 3 but unfortunately the respondents cannot spend time for the interview due to their personal problems. As the result, the interview session has to be postponed to other date. In this research (part 2), we will conduct the research on 20th May 2010 and this date is fix and fit to the condition of us as the researchers and the interviewees as the respondents. We have discussed the content of the interview and list down the appropriate questions to be asked. Most of the questions that we will ask are basically about the information on their experience in carry out the business between 1997 and 2007 (economic cycle). Other than that, we will ask about the economic conditions that affect the business. Other than that, we also faced the problem in collecting quantitative data. For example, the exact sales figures of our respondent’s business performance and the fluctuation of currency. Thus, to overcome this obstruction, we have decided to add up new methodology in carry out this research which is questionnaires. This method is only concentrates on collecting quantitative data and the questions are set up as follows: QUESTIONNAIRES Topic: A study of the impact of economic cycles (from 1997-2007) on the demand for services of a foreign exchange in Kuala Lumpur. 1. How many customers have come to this branch to exchange money daily? a) 1 – 10 persons. b) 11 – 20 persons. c) 21 – 30 persons. d) 31 – 40 persons. 2. How much sales do you obtain daily for this branch? Approximately RM 3. Which currency has the most frequent exchange in your business? 4. How many foreign customers will come to this branch daily? a) 1 – 10 persons. b) 11 – 20 persons. c) 21 – 30 persons. d) 31 – 40 persons. 5. What is your estimate monthly sale?

1.3 Implement New Method to Carry Out Research – Questionnaires

Questionnaire is one of the methods in collecting primary data in survey. It is a very useful method where the respondents will be asked to answer several question regarding their opinion about the topic of the research. Our respondents to answer this questionnaire have been selected based on the interview session. We asked the interviewee to answer the question which basically made up in quantitative way. The respondents are the employees of Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. who work in each of the branch. The advantages of using questionnaires are easy to conduct, low cost involved and speed to get the primary data is very fast. We carry out questionnaire with interview at the same time because respondents that we choose are the staffs of Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. The staffs have the experiences in running the business and experts in currency fluctuation and related information about it. In this case, we cannot choose random sampling for questionnaires. This is because not all the people have knowledge about money changer business and economic cycle. Because of the above changes we have made, we activity plan is shift and several actions are taken such as in determining the suitable date in conducting questionnaires session with the staffs of Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. In carry out this activity, we have decided to conduct interviews and survey questionnaires at the same day which is on 20th May 2010. With this change on activity, we hope that we can collect as much data as possible in order to get accurate result of this research project.

1.4 Fishbone Diagram to Indicate the Cause and Effect of the Problem while doing this Research

Teamwork Planning Problem: Inability to complete the project on time. Methodology used is inadequate Inadequate mix of skills Appointment is always postponed Inappropriate software Poor delegation and observation Difficulties in finding related information Information technology Project management

Diagram 2: Fishbone diagram to illustrate the cause and problems of the research.

Before we go deeply in action plan to carry out the research project, we would like to show the viewers about the cause and effect of the problem that we were facing in completing the first part of the research. The above diagram is a fishbone diagram that we have created in order to illustrate the causes and problems while carry out this research. The first cause of the problem is about the planning which as we mentioned before, we have add up new methodology in order to get precise information regarding the quantitative data. Planning at the beginning of this research is not precise on the methodology because the information gathered is quite adequate at that particular time. As time goes by and the research is continuing, we found that it is necessary for us to add up survey questionnaires in order to get more information regarding the topic. Other reason that messes up our planning is the date for the interview session with the selected respondents is always postponed due to their personal problems. The second cause of the problem is teamwork among the members is quite low. Two of our group member was not fully healthy while carry out the research. This makes the time to finish works become lengthen. However we have a strong will and strive very hard in finishing this project. Other than that, inadequate mix skills also are part of teamwork problem where some of the job has been done in long time because we are trying so hard in follow the standard of research project. The third cause is the project management where poor delegation is involved here. Delegation of work is quite improper in assignment one where the literature reviews is done quite simple because of lack of time. However in this assignment, we will strive to provide as much data and information as we can in order to give fully representation of the research to the viewers. The last cause of the problem regarding this project is the information technology where we faced difficulties in finding related information about this topic. Other than that, we also don’t have appropriate software for the purpose statistical analysis. The software is SPSS (Statistical Package for the Science Social). But, the absence of this software is not affecting our spirit to continue doing this research.

1.5 A Gantt chart to Show the Changes of Activity Plan to Complete the Research

Diagram 3: Gantt chart of activity and action plan in research project

Indicator: Task 1: Brainstorming the ideas on determining suitable topic for research Task 2: Discussing appropriate methodology to be used to carry out research Task 3: Discussing on the suitable date for interview session Task 4: Discussing about the question to be asked in interview Task 5: Discuss on how to collect information regarding the topic Task 6: Decided to do all the tasks together and no one is responsible for a particular task Task 7: Finding information about exchange rate and money changer business in Kuala Lumpur Task 8: Finding information about economic cycle in Malaysia from 1997 to 2007 Task 9: Discuss about literature review and completing the assignment Task 10: Receive the second part of the research question, and discussing the tasks among members Task 11: Discuss appropriate methods to be add up in carry out research Task 12: Preparing the question to be asked for interview Task 13: Discuss with the supervisor about new method to be add up in research Task 14: Carry out interview session and questionnaire Task 15: Analyze the result of interview and questionnaire Task 16: Discuss about the first task in assignment 2 and prepare the action plan Task 17: Solve task 2 and 3 together and evaluate finding Task 18: Critically analyze the finding

1.6 Evaluation on the Activity Plan and Action Plan from the Gantt chart

Gantt chart from the diagram 3 shows the actual activities that we have been carried out in this research. All tasks have been completed successfully and all problems can be settled down effectively. To compare this Gantt chart with the Gantt chart in diagram 1, task 3 has change where the time in determining suitable date for interview is become longer. This is due to the interview that always postponed by the respondents. Between task 9 and task 10, there is a gap of a week. This is a time where assignment 1 and assignment 2 is separated. In assignment 2, we continue to carry out the research and find information to prove the hypotheses. All tasks have been explained in indicators of the diagram.

1.6.1 Interview

After go through a lot of problems regarding the postponed of the interview, we are able to make an appointment with the management of Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. The appointment was held in one of the money changer branches in Mont Kiara in 20th May 2010. In this interview session, we were able to get 2 respondents. One of the respondents is the manager of Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. Another respondent is a staff that responsible in operating the business in Mont Kiara branch. Both interviewees have a lot of experience in managing money changer business in Kuala Lumpur and expert about the changes of currency since 90’s. They also have experiences in managing the business in economic cycle since the age of the company is more than 10 years. This means that when the economic crisis crush the world in 1998, the business is still running even they incurred some losses. This experience is valuable because we want to evaluate the money changer business performance in Kuala Lumpur with regard the economic cycle. While conducting this research, both interviewees are speaking in Bahasa Malaysia but we already convert all the information in English. This means that the viewer of this research can understand the content of our interview easily. The interview session can be viewed in the CD in appendix. In order to find valid information from the purpose of this research, we asked them to provide us with related document that show the performance of the business for the pass 10 years. But unfortunately, they said that the information are not properly kept in appropriate system and cannot show us the exact figures of their sales every year. They use to keep all the records in filing and not computerized. All the documents are kept in different places and it is difficult to find. But they have been explained to us about their business performance by verbal conversation in interview. All the data that we obtained is from the whole point of view of the manager. The information is very useful for us to prove the hypothesis.

persons

Frequency

Class Boundaries

x = Mid Point

C.f

f.x

f.?²

1-10 1 0.5-10.5 5.5 1 5.5 30.25 30.25 11-20 2 10.5-20.5 15.5 3 31 240.25 480.5 21-30

20.5-30.5 25.5 3

650.25

31-40 1 30.5-40.5 35.5 4 35.5 1260.25 1260.25 4

72 2181 1771

Quantitative data and analysis of the data

Persons Upper range : 2 Lower range : 1 Range : 2-1

: 1

Mean,

=

=

The mean is known as average sample. From the amount that we have computed, from 72 customers a day, 18 persons is average customer who attended the four-branch of Usha Anang after us dividing the sum of observed values by the number of observations.

Location of median

=

=

=

Median

€½ 10.5+

=

=

Median is the value of the middle item, which divides the series into two equal parts when the series is arranged in ascending or descending order. The values of the items on one side of the median will be equal to or less than median and the values of the items on the other side will be equal to or greater than median. Within the four branches, the median is 13 which mean customers that come to each branch likely to be 13 people daily.

Mode

= 10.5 +

=

=

Mode is the common item of a series. Mode is the most fashionable or typical value of a distribution because it is repeated the highest number of times in the series. Mode is defined as the value of the variable, which occurs most frequently in a distribution. Thus mode is the size of that item which has the maximum frequency .A distribution may be bimodal or multimodal. The higher person that comes to Usha Anang in the four branches is 14 persons per daily.

Standard deviation, ³

=

=

=

= 10.89 persons ? 11 persons

Standard deviation is a measure of the variability or dispersion of a population, a data set, or a probability distribution. A low standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be very close to the same value (the mean), while high standard deviation indicates that the data are spread out over a large range of values. Foreign customer

persons

Frequency

Class Boundaries

x = Mid Point

C.f

f.x

f.?²

1-10 2 0.5-10.5 5.5 2 11 30.25 60.5 11-20 1 10.5-20.5 15.5 3 15.5 240.25 240.25 21-30

20.5-30.5 25.5 3

650.25

31-40 1 30.5-40.5 35.5 4 35.5 1260.25 1260.25 4

62 2181 1561 Upper range : 2 Lower range : 1 Range : 2-1

: 1

Mean,

=

=

The total foreign customer who comes in four-branch of Usha Anang is 62 persons a day. After we compute the mean for foreign customer, we estimate 16 persons is average foreign customers of Usha Anang.

Location of median

=

=

=

Median

€½ 0.5+

=

=

Median is the value of the middle item, which divides the series into two equal parts when the series is arranged in ascending or descending order. The values of the items on one side of the median will be equal to or less than median and the values of the items on the other side will be equal to or greater than median. Within the four branches, the median is 6 which mean the foreign customer will exchange the money to each branch likely to 6 people daily.

Mode

= 0.5 +

=

=

Mode is the common item of a series. Mode is the most fashionable or typical value of a distribution because it is repeated the highest number of times in the series. Mode is defined as the value of the variable, which occurs most frequently in a distribution. Thus mode is the size of that item which has the maximum frequency .A distribution may be bimodal or multimodal. The higher foreign customer who comes to Usha Anang to exchange the money in the four branches is 8 persons daily.

Standard deviation, ³

=

=

=

= 12.25 persons ? 13 persons

Standard deviation is a measure of the variability or dispersion of a population, a data set, or a probability distribution. A low standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be very close to the same value (the mean), while high standard deviation indicates that the data are spread out over a large range of values.

Sales

Frequency

Class Boundaries

x = Mid Point

C.f

f.x

f.?²

100- <300 2 100 200 2 400 40,000 80,000 300- <500 1 300 400 3 400 160,000 160,000 500- <700

500 600 3

360,000

700- <900 1 700 800 4 800 640,000 640,000 4

1,600 1,200,000 880,000 Sales Upper range : 2 Lower range : 1 Range : 2-1

: 1

Mean,

=

=

The total sales in four-branch of Usha Anang are RM1, 600 a day. After we compute the mean for sales, we estimate RM400 is average sales of Usha Anang.

Location of median

=

=

=

Median

€½ 100+ = 100

=

Median is the value of the middle item, which divides the series into two equal parts when the series is arranged in ascending or descending order. The values of the items on one side of the median will be equal to or less than median and the values of the items on the other side will be equal to or greater than median. In the four branches, the median of sales for Usha Anang is RM101.50, which means the sales to each branch likely to be RM101.50 daily.

Mode

= 100 +

=

=

Mode is the common item of a series. Mode is the most fashionable or typical value of a distribution because it is repeated the highest number of times in the series. Mode is defined as the value of the variable, which occurs most frequently in a distribution. Thus mode is the size of that item which has the maximum frequency .A distribution may be bimodal or multimodal. The higher sales for Usha Anang in the four branches are RM102 daily.

Standard deviation, ³

=

=

=

= RM 244.95

Standard deviation is a measure of the variability or dispersion of a population, a data set, or a probability distribution. A low standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be very close to the same value (the mean), while high standard deviation indicates that the data are spread out over a large range of values.

Currency

Frequency

C.f

Singapore 4 4 US Dollar 3 7 China 2 9 Yen 1 10 10

Frequent exchange

The methodology of interview and questionnaire

For collect the data that we want to get from Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. we choose the interview and questionnaire methodology in our research project. We decided to use structured interview. According to Dewakar (2008), structured interviews are effective as predictors of future job performance. It is true because an interview with Puan Zahara binti Daud and Puan Maslina as representatives from the Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. make an easier way for us to compare the right hypothesis, and can make us choose one from the three hypothesis that we have done in assignment one. It also save our time because we can get the answer directly. Apart from that, we also provided questions which related to the topic of our research project on the economic cycle and the business of Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. in 1997-2007. It also facilitates our work and the Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. because of the questions that our group member already prepare, we do not have to waste time thinking about what kind of questions that must be asked when confront with the representatives of Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. However, doing the interview is not so easy. We need to ask the permission from the owner of Usha Anang first. After that, we need to arrange the appointment on the day we both can make it. Actually, they are so many time we postpone our interview session. We also asked the permission from our lecture for exclusion on the class because we just have available day on weekday. The interview process is already mentioned at task 1. Other than that, we also use questionnaire as our methodology because we think that not all information we can get from the interview with the manager of Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. As we know, Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. has four branches in KL which are Mont Kiara, Bukit Bintang, Jaya Jusco Wangsa Maju, and One Utama. So, it is more convenient if we want to ask about the simple question like the total of the customers per day in each branch from the workers there. For the questionnaire, we prepare about five questions to be answered by the respondents. We just need one respondent from each branch to answer the questionnaire.

Critically analyze the findings

From our interview session and the answers we manage to obtain from the questionnaire, the result is consistent with our hypothesis which is, H 1: Economic cycle have a positive impact on the demand for service of a money changer. We can say that our H 1 is accurate because when value of Ringgit Malaysia (RM) going up, profit of Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. will be going down. However, when the value of RM is going down, profit of Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. will be going up. So that, with the theory given by the manager of Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd., Puan Zahara, it is already tell us that when the economic crisis happen, it will give more advantages to her company because when the currency of RM fall, customers will buy more Malaysian currency and keep up the money and wait until Malaysian currency rise. Other than that, Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. has minor problems that a company needs to face it such as the robbery issue and a new case involving a loss of RM40, 000, counterfeit money, employee problems such as lack of discipline, and record keeping. From what a manager says, a company already faces many robberies in the past ten years of their business. Why it is can happen so many times? Does Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. are taking steps to overcome it? If Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. does not take precautions and do something to overcome this problem, in future, Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. always becomes a target as easier company for robbery. About the counterfeit money, it is a risk to the money changer. However, why after the exchange occurred then the company can track the money they receive is counterfeit money? Does a company do the scanning process first once they received the money or they just want to provide the faster services among others money changer? Because of that, they skipped the important process that can reduce their business risk. As we know, Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd only accepts women to employ as their employees. Why just women? Even though a company know that some of their employees had given so much problems for them with the lack of discipline such as comes late, take a long maternity leave so the company must find a replacement person for a while, and etc,. We still wondering, why Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. does not try to hire man as their employee? It can be a guard for others women employee and with a man in a company, most likely it will also reduce the number of the company was facing robbery. With an experience that can be said, have a long time business in money changer world, Usha Anang. Sdn. Bhd. still has weaknesses in their record keeping. Do they not realize until the company being interviewed by us with the question that they did not expected and then it was revealed the company’s own internal weaknesses. Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. should already have a system equivalent to the current circulation, such as using computer systems. In addition, the company also does not collect all the data from four of their branches into one. If all the data gathered into one, management can compare their overall business. It can be an advantage, for example, when management can see the income from all four branches, of course there has good returns at some branch and some are not. Therefore, management can use the steady income from stable branch to branch that did not sustain profits just now to cover their expenses.

Recommendation for Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd

From our interview with the respondents from Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. we found that they have improper record keeping where they do not use computerized system to keep all the data for the money changer business. So in this part, we would like to recommend this company to use computerized system to manage all 4 branches. They should use this system because their business is quite big since they have 4 branches of shop around Kuala Lumpur. With the presence of computerized system, they can keep the data effectively and save all the data efficiently. Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. can use ordinary record keeping in the system where they can only save the documents and related information of the business is diskette or cd. But, for advance level, they can use appropriate software to manage all account for the business. This is a very good way for them to keep the data safely and it is easy to find. Other than that, they also can use software money changer to facilitate to business activities. Currently, they get the information about the changes of currency from middle men and the information is fax to them every day in hand writing. This is a very conventional way and it is difficult to compete with the competitors. To enhance the business performance, it is very important for this company to upgrade all the systems and obtain all the information on their own. To implement this system in four branches of Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. the manager has to give training to the employees, so that they can use the system appropriately. This may cost them some money but at the end of the day, they will get good result in term of their record keeping. A good record keeping shows that the company is very efficient in managing the business.

Conclusion

As a conclusion, in task 1, our research project is initially did not go smoothly as planned. However, we made some changes to our activity plan as shown at diagram 1 to make sure that it is not shifted so far from the original plan and we can submit our assignment in a timely manner. For task 2 and task 3, it is the calculation part of quantitative and qualitative data that we had from Usha Anang Sdn. Bhd. From the quantitative data, we know many customers that a company has per day whether local or foreign customers, sales data, and the frequent exchange currency money. Using the right method to do the calculate part such as mean, median, mode and standard deviation, it is easier for us to obtain the actual data that we want. To obtain a clearer shade for the both quantitative and qualitative data, we have used appropriate charts and tables for figures. For task 4, we decide to use two types methodology which are the interview and questionnaire. However, our main methodology is the interview. We use questionnaire for get more supportive data and to strengthen the hypothesis that we have listed as well as the evidence that can shows our hypothesis is correct.

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